Thursday, December 24, 2009

MASIH BERTENAGA DIPENGHUJUNG 2009....


Nampaknya harga emas kembali bertenaga setelah merosot sejak dibuka awal minggu ini pada kedudukan USD1112.40/oz.Kenaikan indeks matawang dollar Amerika melepasi 78.00 mata,telah mengiringi penurunan harga emas di bawah paras USD1100/oz.



Index Matawang USD semakin meningkat


 
Memberi impak kepada penurunan harga emas di bawah USD1100/oz


Biar pun dilihat seakan-akan 'berehat' setelah penat menurun,kini emas mula mengumpul tenaga bagi melonjak semula melepasi paras USD1100/oz.

Adakah penanda aras ini kembali goyah?
Sama-sama kita perhatikan persaingan hebat antara harga emas dan indeks matawang USD ini.

Adakah lonjakan harga emas ini akan berterusan??
Atau emas sekadar memberitahu nilainya yang sebenar pada situasi kini.....!!!



                                                         
Indeks USD yang sedang merosot


 
Harga emas sedang mendaki ke paras melepasi USD1100/oz




Harga emas sedang meningkat (dalam RM/gram)


Walau apapun,inilah masa yang sesuai untuk memiliki emas.Dikhuatiri indeks matawang USD terus lemah menjelang selepas Hari Natal dan perayaan Krismas.Seterusnya perayaan sambutan tahun baru 2010.Akan menyebabkan harga emas terus naik.

Diharap harga emas akan lebih stabil berbanding keadaan sekarang yang telahpun selesa.Jika pada ketika harga emas masih rendah dulu pun,kita tidak mampu memilikinya kerana nilainya dikatakan mahal.Apatah lagi nilainya pada masa sekarang.Apakah nilai emas pada tahap sekarang dalam tempoh 2 tahun lagi?

Pada penilaian saya,penurunan indeks USD pada kadar 1% akan memberi kesan kenaikan pada harga emas sebanyak 2.34%.

Bagaimana kalau indeks USD pula yang naik 1%.Berapa % pulak harga emas akan turun?

Apa tindakan kita semua?Walau bagaimanapun....

MILIKILAH EMAS SEBELUM HARGA MENINGKAT LEBIH TINGGI,
BAGI MENJAMIN PELABURAN DAN MELIPATGANDAKAN KEKAYAAN ANDA.





Wednesday, December 16, 2009

AN UNBELIEVABLE OPPORTUNITY IN GOLD


Yes, there is no typo in the headline of this article. Today there is still an unbelievable opportunity to invest in gold that will disappear over the next several years as this monetary crisis deepens. Despite the general widespread sentiment of Western financial advisers that they have missed the run-up in gold and now it is too late to buy, this is not true at all. In fact, to illustrate how little people understand about the reasons to buy gold, of all my friends that I urged to buy physical gold more than six years ago when gold was less than half of its current price, I only know of one that has bought any gold, and it still took five years of my prodding, four times a year, for this single person to purchase gold. This is how incredibly misunderstood an asset gold remains today despite its enormous run higher in the past 8 years. This brief anecdote aptly illustrates the bias against gold and the foolish belief that gold is a bubble that persists today due to the massive propaganda and disinformation campaigns waged by bankers against gold. It is ironic today that public mistrust of bankers can be at such a high level at the same time that the public is still enormously willing to follow all of the bankers’ propaganda about gold. This great twist of irony illustrates just how powerful the bankers’ century long misinformation campaign about money and gold has been. Few people even understand how money is created let alone why gold is a protector of people’s rights.

Even if gold continues to correct this week, and the bullion banks, the US Treasury, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are able to engineer a further decline in gold prices in the futures markets, this event will not be the bursting of the gold bubble as it will be, and always has been, described by many Western media sources. Even if gold loses another $120+ an ounce from its current price, this event would not mark the bursting of the gold bubble. The incorrect description of corrections in the gold markets, or downright meddling of Central Banks into the suppression of gold prices, as the bursting of a bubble is just as erroneous as the recent descriptions of rising stock markets as signs of economic recoveries. And this is the legacy bankers have created – confusing the masses to believe the exact opposite of what is true.

Though I’m not going to tell you the price point at which I believe gold will start rising again, it is not impossible to time markets as investment charlatans will lead you to believe as well. In fact, at the very beginning of this month, we told all subscribers of my Crisis Investment Opportunities investment newsletter to sell out of their precious metal stocks right before this steep correction in gold and silver occurred to lock in their profits and we’ll tell them to re-enter (or have told them to re-enter) when we feel that a low-risk, high-reward time to reposition our assets has materialized once again. By understanding the rigging game in gold and silver markets and in stock markets, we’ve more than tripled the returns of the S&P 500 this year. In all honesty, however, bankers have filled most investors’ heads over the years with so many lies about gold that for the majority of investors, it would be a futile effort to try to time the market anyway. Most would be better off just understanding the fundamentals behind why they need to own gold and to buy and hold on through the dips and rises until it reaches the mania stage.

Being able to predict the recent steep correction in gold and silver in advance of its occurrence merely requires understanding the manipulation and rigging game in these markets. Understand the rigging game behind gold and it is quite possible to repeatedly time the gold markets with a fair amount of accuracy. Subscribers to my services will vouch that I have called near perfect tops and bottoms in the gold and silver markets more than several times over the past several years. Even if you refuse to acknowledge the indisputable signs that the gold market is, and has been rigged for decades, you only need realize one thing – that despite the best efforts of the US Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and the Bank of England to suppress the price of gold, gold’s long term trend since 2001 when it bottomed at about $250 an ounce, has been up. And if you are astute enough to realize that the gold markets have been, and still are rigged, then observing gold’s rise from $250 an ounce eight years ago to more than $1200 an ounce just a week ago should give you the utmost confidence, that despite the best efforts of bankers to wreck gold’s price, its long-term trend will remain higher for quite some years to come.

Still, no matter what side of the “gold is rigged” debate you stand on (and there is lots of evidence to believe the “gold is rigged” side of the debate thanks to the tireless work of GATA.org), the public’s stated reasons for not owning gold are not only absent of logic but they are downright foolish.  

Two of the most frequently given reasons I’ve heard from Westerners as to why they will not buy gold are parroted banking propaganda that make absolutely no sense. The first reason people often give as to why they are reluctant to buy gold is that gold pays no interest. People would realize how foolish this stated reason was if they only realized that all paper money is issued as debt. If there were no debts in the system, there could be no money, yet people gladly accept an instrument that is issued as a debt and believe that it is a pure asset. Secondly, they state, you can’t buy anything with gold. You can’t pay for many items with Euros in many American stores or buy items with US dollars in many European stores either, but that doesn’t mean the Euro is worthless to own if you live in America or that the dollar is worthless to own if you live in Europe. Both will still have some value in buying goods and services. Thus, to not own gold because “you can’t buy anything in stores with a gold coin or gold bar” is an answer devoid of any logic whatsoever.

Throughout history, gold has always been accepted as a form of money. In fact a gold coin in ancient Roman times would buy you about the same things today as it would have back then. With US dollars, you now need twice as many dollars to buy the same things today as you would have needed just 8 or 9 years ago. If a wealthy eccentric man walked into a Maybach auto dealership and insisted on paying for four custom made Maybachs with $2.4 million worth of gold bars, I guarantee you that the dealer would find a way to accept the gold bars and make the $2.4 million sale, knowing that he could choose to hold on to the gold or to convert it into Euros, Yen, Pounds or Dollars at a later point and time. Thus, there is no reason to believe that gold can not be used to purchase items. Gold may be an inconvenient form of money, but it will be much more inconvenient to watch your fiat money crash and burn and for much of your wealth to be wiped out when the second phase of this monetary crisis commences sometime in 2010 or 2011.

Secondly, psychology plays a huge role in the foolish bias of Westerners against gold. Were Westerners to live in China for just one year, where almost everyone knows multiple people that own physical gold, I guarantee you that their perception of gold, upon returning to America, would be drastically changed. They would be inclined to buy more gold just because of the sheep herd mentality that would make them much more comfortable purchasing physical gold after watching many of their friends and associates engaging in the behavior of buying gold for an entire year. Though in China, this herd behavior happens to be correct, just because everyone is doing the same thing, does not by default, make it the correct behavior. In fact, in investing, just the opposite is normally true. When everyone is doing (or not doing) the same thing, they almost always are wrong. Think of US hedge fund manager John Paulson and his enormous coup of earning $4 billion of profit for himself in 2007. Paulson stood on the opposite side of the subprime mortgage bet from the rest of all of Wall Street. Regarding a recent book based entirely upon Paulson’s enormously successful bet to short the US housing market, one reader stated: “The most amazing thing is that no one seemed to believe [Paulson] until the market crashed and by then it was too late.” Though Paulson was a lone wolf among very few lone wolves that existed at the time regarding his beliefs that the subprime mortgage market would crash and burn, he ended up being right and all of Wall Street ended up being wrong. With buying physical gold, it will also pay to think like a lone wolf if you are a Westerner.

However, here’s the lesson most investors still refuse to learn about Paulson’s enormously successful investment play. The majority of investors never take the next crucial step of investigating the reasons why no one believed Paulson’s comments about the US housing market. If they did, they would discover that the reason nobody believed in Paulson’s enormous bet back then was due to the propaganda of bankers like Ben Bernanke and politicians that assured the American people that the housing market would be fine. Many times the masses immediately accept a person’s statement as truth with no critical analysis of that statement just because that person is a public authority figure. But how naïve would you have to be to believe President Obama’s recent statement on the American TV show 60 Minutes that “[he] did not run for office to be helping out a bunch of fat cat bankers on Wall Street.” Goldman Sachs’s Political Action Committee was the second largest contributor to President Obama’s election campaign, so were it not for the money of “fat cat bankers”, Obama may very well not even have been elected as President in 2008. Knowing this, do you really believe that Obama has zero obligations to the second largest contributor to his political campaign?

Furthermore, were you to merely analyze President Obama’s financial decisions since he has taken office, the disingenuous nature of his above comment would be readily exposed. Almost every single financial policy decision of his administration has benefited “fat cat bankers” to the detriment of everyday US citizens. Again, those blinded by political or racial loyalties at the expense of logic will be sure to foolishly digest my statement as a politically-biased statement though there is no evidence to support that conclusion. Any reader can easily check my past history of public statements and discover that my criticisms of the foolish monetary and fiscal policies of the Clinton and Bush Administrations are just as numerous as my criticisms levied against the Obama Administration. If you are serious about never wanting to be fooled or bamboozled by a politician again, then never look to a politician’s words, but only to his or her actions, to unearth a politician’s true character and nature. Only a fool would ever accept a politician’s words as an accurate representation of a politician’s intent.

Likewise, you would be very wise to apply the above maxim to bankers as well. Investors should look towards bankers’ actions and not their words when trying to decipher their intent. Bankers are responsible for the propaganda that gold is a barbarous relic. Bankers are responsible for the propaganda that gold is a cumbersome asset to own because it pays no interest. These are their words. Yet if you look toward their actions, Central Bankers all over the world were net buyers of gold this past year. Shouldn’t that alert you to the fact that bankers are a bunch of conniving liars in everything they tell the masses about gold? When Paulson first assumed his position shorting the subprime mortgage market, it was not only bankers, but also chief executives at large commercial investment firms that derided him, stating that the subprime mortgage market would be fine. I personally heard many of the same criticisms when I started telling people to buy physical gold six or seven years ago – that I was crazy for thinking that the US dollar would get into trouble and that the US dollar would be fine, that owning gold was a stupid and foolish investment. People actually laughed at me for buying gold. A top investment strategist at Citigroup stated that gold was a bubble in 2005 when gold reached $500 an ounce. And now, even though the gold critics have been wrong now for eight years in a row now, they still use every gold correction as an opportunity to deceive Americans into believing that gold is a bubble and about to collapse. And amazingly, Americans continue to look not towards bankers’ actions but to their words only. The overwhelming majority of Americans believe the bankers’ WORDS that the US dollar will be fine, and foolishly point out every bear rally in the US dollar as proof that the dollar will be fine.

Ninety-five percent of what I’ve heard financial advisers state about gold is wrong. 
Ninety-five percent of what I’ve read in the public domain about gold is wrong. 
Ninety-five percent of what I’ve read from the Western media about the US dollar is wrong. 
And ninety-five percent of the arguments I’ve read against owning gold, even when filled with supposed “facts”, are wrong.

Many of the arguments against gold sound convincing, even though they are deeply flawed because erroneous data are used to produce flawed conclusions. But this is the very definition of propaganda – arguments that use erroneous data presented as “facts” to draw convincing conclusions that are highly flawed, though to the undiscerning eye, they seem quite logical. The reason that bankers have always spread so much propaganda about gold is because gold is the kryptonite of bankers. Gold allows people to preserve their wealth against their fiat currency debasement schemes.

Hank Paulson, in testimony before Congress, stated that it was necessary to bail out Goldman Sachs through the bailout of AIG because the people, “were unhappy with the big discrepancies in wealth, but they at least believed in the system and in some form of market-driven capitalism. But if we had a complete meltdown, it could lead to people questioning the basis of the system.” If Americans really wanted to expose the fraud of the entire financial system, all they would have to do is to put just a tiny part of their entire savings into physical gold. If all Americans put perhaps as little as 5% of their entire savings into physical gold, this would likely be more than adequate to expose the fraudulent basis of the financial system by which firms such as Goldman Sachs reap such ungodly profits year after year. What frightens the bankers the most is the possibility that people will fully understand the basis of the system, and this is why Western Central Bankers continually wage so many disinformation campaigns against gold.

Consider this story about HSBC and its retail gold clients that was reported last month: “The British bank, which has sizeable vaults underneath its US headquarters overlooking Manhattan’s Bryant Park, has told retail customers – many of whom are middle-men and custodian services which store gold with HSBC on behalf of hundreds of their own clients – that all their gold must be out of its facility by July 2010. The decision has seen fleets of armoured cars laden with gold ferrying the precious metal out of New York. An HSBC spokesman declined to comment, but it is understood that the increased demand for physical storage of gold by corporate clients is behind the move to end the retail service, which HSBC inherited when it took over Republic Bank a decade ago.” With banks, it’s never about doing what’s best for their clients. It’s always about what’s doing what’s most profitable for their executives. For HSBC’s individual retail clients that were intelligent enough to own gold, HSBC most likely realized that larger, much more profitable relationships could be built with corporate clients that wanted to buy gold versus their retail clients. Thus, their retail clients got the axe despite the fact that HSBC knew that such a decision would be incredibly inconvenient for them.

Just as was the case with subprime mortgages when almost all of Wall Street got it wrong, the only reason anyone believes that gold is a bubble today is because people have forgotten how to think for themselves, foolishly believe that there are not hidden ulterior motives behind the beliefs spouted by Wall Street, and for some inexplicable reason, still internalize and accept all banker propaganda against gold while at they same time, they claim to distrust them. That’s why no matter how much further gold drops before this correction ends, if you don’t make the move to buy physical gold if you don’t own any, you will look back with regret five years from now and realize that you missed an unbelievable opportunity. 

source: the underground investor

Sunday, December 13, 2009

SEMINAR PUBLIC GOLD

Schedule of Public Gold Seminar:

          Day        Date          Time                           Town Venue

  1. Sat       19.12.09    8pm-10pm     Sungai Petani Park Avenue Hotel
  2. Sun      20.12.09    8pm-10pm     Butterworth Pearl View Hotel
  3. Sat       26.12.09    8pm-10pm     Kota Bahru Grand Riverview Hotel
  4. Sun      27.12.09    8pm-10pm     Kuala Terengganu Ming Star Hotel
  5. Sat       02.01.10    8pm-10pm     Johor Bahru J. A. Residence Hotel

Details of Venue:

Park Avenue Hotel
Jati room,Level 2
E-1 Jalan Indah Dua, Taman Sejati Indah,
08000 Sungai Petani, Kedah.
Tel: 04-431 7777

Pearl View Hotel
Pearl 6 (Level 5)
Jalan Baru, Seberang Prai,
13700 Butterworth, Penang.
Tel: 04-398 9888

Grand Riverview Hotel
Dewan Congkak (1stFloor)
Jalan Post Office Lama,
15000 Kota Bharu, Kelantan.
Tel: 09-743 9988

Ming Star Hotel
Dewan Tanjung 2 – Level 1
217, Wisma Cemerlang, Jalan Sultan Abidin,
20000 Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu.
Tel: 09-622 8666

J. A. Residence Hotel
(Formerly known as the Compact Hotel Johor Bahru)
Hall J.A. Residence
18, Jalan Wong Ah Fook,
80000 Johor Bahru, Johor.
Tel: 07-221 3000

Friday, December 11, 2009

Zakat emas perhiasan, apa dalil dan hujahnya?


Ada orang yang mengaji fikah, mungkin mempertikaikan kenapa LZS mengenakan zakat ke atas emas yang dipakai. Bukankah ada ulamak fikah yang membolehkannya bahkan pandangan yang kuat daripada Mazhab Syafie juga tidak mewajibkan zakat ke atas emas yang dijadikan perhiasan wanita.
Nah! Mari kita telusuri perkara berikut.

Persoalan di atas adalah dia antara soalan yang agak popular di kalangan muslimah. Mereka mempunyai anggapan bahawa emas perhiasan yang dipakai di tubuh mereka langsung tidak payah diambil kira dalam taksiran zakat. Jika saya memberikan jawapan, maka saya selalunya mengambil pendekatan mudah. Jawapan saya: “Dalam Islam, Islam sememangnya meraikan fitrah dan naluri wanita yang inginkan perhiasan. Wanita dan emas sudah sebati. Mana ada orang perempuan yang tak gemarkan perhiasan.
“Namun begitu, Islam juga mahu agar dalam berhias agar tidak terlalu melampau dan membawa kepada berlebih-lebihan. Maka itulah, di Selangor kita menggunakan kaedah emas yang dipakai wajib dizakatkan apabila ia melebihi daripada kadar kebiasaan pemakaian atau dipanggil ‘uruf’. Uruf ni pula berbeza-besa mengikut negeri. Di Selangor urufnya berdasarkan berat, iaitu 800 gram emas. Maknanya, jika ada orang perempuan yang memakai emas melebihi 800 gram, maka wajiblah zakat ke atas emas yang dipakai itu.”
Ramai juga yang terkeliru, apakah maksud dipakai? Mestikah dipakai emas itu sepanjang masa, yakni sepanjang tahun agar ia menjadi cukup hawl?

Jawapan saya: “Jika puan-puan pakai emas itu sepanjang masa, bayangkanlah…800 gram emas, hampir sekilo beratnya. Maka, bayangkanlah betapa beratnya jika ia tersangkut pada tubuh badan kita. Mahu melelong jika berjalan.
“Sebenarnya, yang dimaksudkan dengan dipakai itu ialah, emas berkenaan dipakai walaupun hanya sekali dalam tempoh setahun. Namun, sekali itu ialah pemakaian yang menepati maksud pakailah. Bukan main ambil cincin atau subang, sarung kejap, ketik kejap kat telinga lepas tu buka balik. Itu bukannya pakai. Maksud pakai ialah kadar biasa dipakai. Mungkin ada orang pakai sejam sebab nak pergi kenduri, lepas tu buka balik. Itu pun dikira emas yang dipakailah.”

Sebenarnya para pembaca budiman sekalian, memang ada dua pendapat di kalangan ulamak mengenai zakat emas perhiasan yang dipakai ini. Antum boleh rujuklah dalam mana-mana kitab fikah yang banyak ada di perpustakaan itu. Di sini saya cadangkan satu, iaitu Kitab Ensaiklopedia Fiqh Wanita (Puasa dan Zakat) karangan Dr Abd al-Karim Zaidan atau dalam edisi Arabnya al-Mufasshal fi ahkam al-Mar’ah wa al-bayt al-Muslim fi al-Syari’ah al-Islamiyyah (mak aih…panjangnya tajuk kitab), terbitan Mu’assasah ar-Risalah, Beirut, Syria.
Kitab ini menarik kerana ia membahaskan hukum seputar zakat berdasarkan kepelbagaian mazhab fikah, tak tertakluk kepada as-Syafie sahaja. Pada Jilid Ke-2 kitab ini, ada dibahaskan: ‘Adakah perhiasan yang digunakan oleh wanita tidak wajib dizakatkan?’
Sesungguhnya perbezaan pendapat dalam bab perhiasan wanita yang dipakai ini dapat kita rujuk kepada dua pendapat.
Pertama, pandangan yang mewajibkannya yang dikeluarkan oleh Umar bin al-Khattab, Abdullah bin Mas’ud, Abdullah bin Abbas, Abdullah bin Amr bin ‘Ash, Sa’id bin al-Musayyab, Sa’id bin Jabir, ‘Atha’, Mujahid dan lain-lain lagi. Mazhab Hanafi, Zahiri dan Zaidiyah juga menyokong pendapat ini.
Kedua, pendapat yang mengatakan emas yang dipakai sebagai perhiasan maka tak wajib zakat ke atasnya, sebagaimana yang dikeluarkan oleh ‘Abdullah bin Umar, ‘Aisyah, jabir bin Abdullah, Anas bin Malik, Asma’ binti Abu Bakr dan beberapa orang lagi. Mazhab Maliki, Hanbali dan pendapat yang ketara daripada Syafie dan Ja’fariyyah juga mendokong pendapat kedua ni.

Mari kita lihat, apa dalil pendapat pertama.
1. Mereka menyandarkan kepada firman Allah SWT di dalam at-taubah ayat 34: “…dan orang-orang yang menyimpan emas dan perak dan tidak menafkahkannya pada jalan Allah, maka beritahukanlah kepada mereka seksa yang pedih.”
2. Juga daripada sabda Nabi SAW: “Keluarkanlah zakat harta kekayaan kamu sekalian agar menjadi bersih jiwamu.”
3. Perhiasan wanita adalah lebihan daripada keperluan asasi.
4. Juga pelbagai dalil daripada al-hadis yang lain yang mana kesimpulannya, emas dan perak yang dijadikan perhiasan adalah lebih awla untuk dizakatkan.

Manakala pendapat kedua pula membawakan hujah-hujah:
1.Hadis Nabi SAW: “Tiada zakat dalam perhiasan.”
2.Riwayat ‘Aisyah dan anak saudaranya yang tidak mengeluarkan zakat daripada perhiasan.
3.Perhiasan untuk wanita adalah dibolehkan agama untuk wanita maka ia tidak wajib dizakatkan sebagaimana lembu yang digunakan untuk berladang tidak dikenakan zakat ternakan (atas illah ia bukan harta yang berkembang – an-nama’).
4. Juga beberapa pandangan sahabat yang lain.

Kesimpulan oleh Dr Abdul Karim Zaidan, beliau sebenarnya lebih cenderung kepada pandangan kedua, iaitu tidak dikenakan zakat ke atas emas atau perak yang dijadikan perhiasan wanita. Ini kerana, beliau berpandangan:
1. Demi kelestarian perkahwinan, maka wanita perlu menjaga penampilannya dan berhias adalah satu tuntutan. Termasuklah dalam hak memakai emas ini demi sentiasa menambat hati si suami.
2. Untuk mendorong wanita berhias ialah apabila zakat tidak dikenakan pada emas yang mereka pakai, jika dikenakan juga zakat, maka hilanglah keghairahan mereka untuk berhias bagi mendokong perkara 1 di atas.

Kesimpulan saya pula yang tak berapa pandai ni, sebab itulah di Malaysia khususnya kita menggunakan kaedah MELEBIHI URUF baharu diwajibkan zakat. Ini kerana, jika si wanita sekadar memakai emas perhiasan yang tidak melebihi uruf, maka itu adalah biasa. Sekadar sebentuk dua cincin di jari tangan, seurat dua rantai di leher, dua pasang anting-anting…masih dianggap biasa. Tetapi jika sudah sampai ada peti khas, sampai dah tak ingat yang mana satu sudah dipakai yang mana belum dipakai, itu sudah masuk bab berlebih-lebihan dan bagi saya, wajarlah dizakatkan. Hal ini selaras dengan firman Allah di dalam al-Quran, surah al-Baqarah ayat 219:
“Dan mereka bertanya kepadamu apa yang mereka nafkahkan. Katakanlah: ” Yang LEBIH dari keperluan.” Demikianlah Allah menerangkan ayat-ayat-Nya kepadamu supaya kamu berfikir.”

Wallahua’lam.

sumber: e-zakat.com.my
 

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

EMAS SEDANG MENJUNAM-APA YANG PERLU KITA BUAT?


Telah 3 hari berturut-turut harga emas menunjukkan penurunan yang ketara.Daripada pendakian setinggi lebih USD1226/oz,kini emas terjelepuk pada harga USD1125.30.Secara kasarnya,penurunan ini adalah sebanyak 8.2%.





                                                      Carta Kitco menunjukkan trend harga emas sedang menurun.


Adakah anda PANIK?

Bagi saya jangan panik dan kecewa walaupun harga emas menunjukkan trend menurun.Diantara faktor yang menyebabkan harga emas merosot adalah :

(a)pengukuhan matawang dollar Amerika disebabkan krisis ekonomi di Dubai dan Greece.
(b)pelepasan pegangan emas atau penjualan dan pengambilan untung jangkamasa
     singkat yang berleluasa bagi pelabur yang panik.

Hakikatnya,jika diambilkira jangkamasa panjang,pelaburan serta harga emas masih lagi meningkat berbanding penyusutan nilai matawang.Pelaburan emas bukanlah semata-mata untuk membuat 'keuntungan cepat',yang pastinya,penyimpanan emas dapat mengekalkan dan terjamin daripada terhakisnya kekayaan disebabkan inflasi.

Apa yang perlu anda lakukan?

Jika sebelum ini anda terkilan tidak sempat memiliki emas disebabkan kenaikan harga emas yang terlalu mendadak,maka,inilah peluang terbaik untuk memiliki emas.Inilah masa yang sesuai untuk memiliki emas disebabkan harga emas telah turun.Bagi mereka yang telah mempunyai emas pula,janganlah gelabah.Inilah masa terbaik anda untuk membeli emas lagi.Tambahkan koleksi simpanan emas anda.Bagaimana nak membeli,semua wang dah habis membeli emas dulu.Jangan lepaskan peluang harga emas turun,dengan membeli lagi emas dengan cara memperolehi wang dari sistem Ar-Rahnu.Gadaikan emas anda.Dapatkan 65% wang dari nilai marhun emas anda,beli lagi emas.Dengan cara ini,anda dapat menambah jumlah berat emas anda biarpun emas yang terdahulu berada dalam pajakan/gadaian.

Bagaimana sekiranya harga emas terus jatuh?

Ulangi lagi langkah diatas.Mesej yang jelas disini ialah kita terus meningkatkan jumlah simpanan emas bilamana harga emas semakin jatuh.Harga emas pasti melonjak kembali berdasarkan faktor-faktor berikut:

(a)Pelabur baru semakin ramai memasuki pasaran bilamana harga emas jatuh.
(b)Permintaan terhadap penggunaan emas yang sermakin meningkat dalam bentuk barang
     kemas,peralatan elektronik,dan lain-lain.
(c)Kos menebus-guna emas yang tidak berbaloi terhadap emas yang telah digunakan
     menyebabkan emas akan terus berkurangan.
(d)Tidak semua penyimpan emas akan menjual emas bilamana harga jatuh.

Apa yang perlu dibuat sekiranya harga emas melonjak semula?

Salah satu emas yang berada didalam simpanan harus dijual dan wang dari hasil jualan emas tersebut digunakan bagi menebus kembali satu per satu emas yang berada dalam gadaian Ar-Rahnu.

Kesimpulan dari trend naik-turun emas ini menunjukkan bahawa pelaburan berbentuk emas memberi keuntungan dalam jangkamasa panjang.Mana mungkin harga emas merudum terus dalam keadaan ekonomi inflasi,harga barangan kegunaan harian semakin meningkat,stok simpanan minyak mentah dunia semakin susut,peningkatan bilangan penduduk dunia yang semakin bertambah,dalam mana permintaan terhadap emas semakin bertambah.

Saya bukan pakar emas tetapi peringatan dari Rasulullah S.A.W. pasti berlaku....diakhir zaman tiada apa yang bernilai didunia ini kecuali emas dan perak.Bilamana harga emas meningkat terlalu tinggi,ramai yang tidak mampu untuk memilikinya,maka perak akan turut berharga mengiringi emas.Akhirnya emas dan perak akan jadi matawang untuk dunia bertransaksi.Seiring dengan kebangkitan negara di Timur dan seterusnya Islam akan kembali menjadi pegangan manusia.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

WHEN IS THE BEST TIME TO BUY GOLD?

Many people ask when is the best time to buy gold as the price keeps changing, almost on an hourly basis. Currently the gold price is on an upward trend and

Sometimes there is a "trend" either upward or downward. You see on the news each day the price of gold fluctuating. Usually measured in terms of the US dollar per ounce.

But what is really happening here?

What does this really mean?

Gold Trends
The gold trend goes up and down in relation to the value of the dollar. The value of gold does not actually change very much at all. In fact if you checked back through history you would see that the value of gold over the past 200 years has hardly changed at all compared to the value of other goods. One ounce of gold today will purchase almost the same amount of goods as it did 50 years ago. The only change is actually the value of the currency not the gold. Inflation, recession (to use a popular word), all affect the value of the fiscal currency but generally do not affect gold.

The value of one ounce of gold, for example in the year 1800 was around $19-20US per ounce. These days it is in the 900 plus per ounce range, and rising. The large fluctuation as a direct result of the value of the decreasing.

The Value of Gold
A good example of the decrease in the value of the dollar, despite, or perhaps because of it, is the increase in the quantity of dollars being printed, According to the consumer price index What cost $20 in 1800 would cost 216.86 dollars in 2005. Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2005 and 1800, they would cost you $20 and $1.85 cents respectively.

If the government decided top return to the gold standard and back every dollar by gold, there is so much printed dollars floating around now that it would take a good 50,000 dollars per ounce to ensure each dollar is backed by gold.

This could still happen and the government can still bring back the 1933 legislation to stop US citizens from owning gold if they wished. It would be very difficult to enforce and administer of course but there are other ways to do so. Buy back the gold using more printed money which becomes even of less value in terms of buying goods and services.

Michael Kosares, of USA Gold, notes the severe declining power of the US dollar in "Disturbing Trends".

And then, in stark contrast is the value of gold going up as the dollar goes down.

This explains why people purchase more gold during a recession when the value of the dollar (or whatever other fiscal currency they use) decreases in value. The value of the gold does not. Gold keeps it’s value and has done so for hundreds of years in fact.

When to Buy Gold
So what is the answer to the question. When is the best time to buy gold?

The best time to buy gold is right NOW! In fact it is always the best time to buy gold. If you were to purchase a small amount of gold bullion each month for the next 5 years, you would still beat inflation hands down.

GOODBYE EUROPE ... HELLO "EURUSSIA"... and "hello Gold!"

Alex Wallenwein,APRIL 2003 :

Forget about Bush's "axis of evil." Iran, Iraq, and North Korea are mere molehills in the current foreign policy landscape.

There is a groundswell of changing alliances in the making. It's already obvious manifestations are staring us right in the face - but we continue to talk and think as if the map of Europe was still composed of many differently colored splotches as it always had since WWII.

What formerly were friendly nations have become hostile elements of a newly emerging, competing power bloc. The major players in this regrouping of decades-old alliances are busily forming a new "axis", and after being publicly humiliated in the foreign policy arena for their blatantly pro-Saddam stance in the run-up to the US invasion of Iraq, they are about to turn the tables on the US, but this time on the economic battlefield.

The world has changed.

But it has not changed because of the US invasion of Iraq. Rather, the invasion and subsequent "liberation" of Iraq by coalition forces has only served to highlight the near-completion of a change that was in the making long before 9-11.

The international alliances most of us have grown up with and have learned to take for granted are now simply dead. They no longer exist, save in words only. Germany no longer is an ally of the United States. France probably never was, but now doesn't even feel the need to pretend anymore. Both countries now feel more sympathy and commonality with such benevolent regimes as Russia and China, with pre-war Iraq, Iran, Libya, Saudi-Arabia, and the Palestinian Authority, rather than with their old buddies, the US and Israel.

What changed them?

For one, these two European states are no longer "countries" in the classical sense. They have assumed a new, larger identity. They have divested themselves of key elements of their former national sovereignty, such as the power to determine who and what comes in and goes out of their borders, their own national currencies, and important trade decisions. They are now elements of what they perceive to be a pan-Eurasian axis.

As such, they feel they are destined for greater things in the world of men. No longer are they to chafe under the heavy burden of viewing themselves as having once been "saved" by the US from communist Russian aggression (in the case of Germany), or German aggression (in the case of France). Now, together, they are a force to be reckoned with, they think, a power of their own. As the saying goes: one finger can be broken, but five fingers make a fist.

They now have a super-currency, the euro, which further reduces any sense of national identity (and apparently causes widespread amnesia of their national histories as well).

Judging from the alliances they have forged, they apparently also lost any sense of who their natural allies vs. their natural predators are. As recent history shows, they are willing to embrace brutal, murdering dictators and totalitarian regimes, "trading with the enemy" so to speak, while acting and talking as if the US was their foe.

Well, in a way it is, although the word "foe" may be a bit too harsh. Let's say the word is "adversary" or "competitor."

But, competitor in what?

Power - and it's little brother: money. For their new common currency, the euro, has taken on a characteristic that puts it into direct conflict with the US dollar.

The dollar is a purely debt based currency with an adverse relationship to gold. Gold is the dollar's nemesis. When the gold price goes up, confidence in the dollar decreases and people start selling dollars.. It's usually a sign of impending or prevailing inflation.

The euro, on the other hand, has a "positive" relationship to gold. The European Central Bank, and all the euro member's central banks, value their gold reserves quarterly at actual market prices. That means, as the price of gold goes up, the value of their currency goes up as well, and by signing the "Washington Accord" in 1999 they have announced to the world that the dollar's gold-suppression jig is up.

The dollar is still hamstrung by being tied to an artificial, government-decreed, quasi-official price of gold at the whopping rate of $42.222 per ounce. [See Title 31, United States Code, Section 5117(b).] Obviously, with the market price of gold currently above $330, that "official price" has nothing to do with the realities of the gold market. It is actually a remnant of the gold standard days when every dollar was immediately convertible into gold on demand, at a stated rate.

Being thus tied down, the US government and banking elite can never afford to let the price of gold float freely according to actual market forces (yes, that old, worn-out "demand and supply" thingy. Gets you all the time!)

This little difference in the valuation of gold makes the euro the undisputed, hands-down future winner of the euro vs dollar conflict. Well, not really the future winner anymore. The euro has already delivered its knock-out punch. What you are witnessing is the agonizingly slow fall of the US dollar giant to the floor of the boxing ring. It's just too early for the count.

Without going into the intricate details of the relationship, the euro's guaranteed future success can best be explained this way: free market forces can never be violated with impunity for a very long time. They always reassert themselves - sooner or later.

The euro was constructed to take advantage of free market forces - especially the free market of gold. The dollar is anchored in a useless, repressive scheme that cannot allow market forces to prevail vis-a-vis gold.

Ergo, the dollar is doomed.

And that is precisely the cause for the cold shoulder central Europeans are currently showing the US. They know they got the dollar "bagged," and the dollar's past and current reserve-currency status makes it an extremely worthwhile target for them, indeed.

Once it is replaced as the world's reserve currency, the dollar - and with it the United States - will cease to be a world superpower. Such is the calculation of Europe, and that calculation drives it directly into the arms of Mother Russia.

Of course, mother Russia welcomes Germany and France. Soon mother Russia will swallow (uhhum, "join") greater Europe. When Russia and Europe merge, merge they surely will - but not in the way Europe anticipates. Russia will be the last one to laugh. She could not compete with Reagan's America militarily or economically. Now she simply sits back and watches Bush's America exhaust herself fighting the price of gold - a fight which strengthens the euro at every turn.

The more America struggles, the more the euro's noose tightens around her neck. And the Russian bear sits back, ready to devour the certain winner.

America is like a sheep, still oblivious of the euro-pean threat, grazing happily on the greenback's still-lush pastures. And Europe is like a splendid salmon in the river of economic life, swimming and jumping mightily toward what it believes to be its ultimate destination, blissfully unaware of the bear that waits, one paw raised, a frozen statue of cunning and death.

Alright, enough melodramatics. The bottom line is: when the euro defeats the dollar and America crumbles, Russia will devour Europe, China will devour Asia, and then both will probably fight over the scraps that remain of America.

And all of America's current military might will lay waste when the international currency reserve dollars return home, causing hyper-inflation and economic havoc. There will be no more financial power to pay for expensive military campaigns. All of her recent victories in Afghanistan and Iraq will be forgotten, unless ...

... unless Sir Alan "Greenspin" and George W. Bush wise up and take the lid off the gold price, let the dollar ride its inevitable ascent, and retain a chance to compete with the euro for world reserve currency status on a more even playing field.

It would truly be ironic if the US, the country that always harped on other countries' needs to adopt more "free market" strategies, should do itself in by fighting free market forces, while the "free gold" euro becomes the currency of socialist and totalitarian regimes of the world - and defeats the supposedly free-market, capitalist United States in the process.

Well, nobody could ever say that God doesn't have a sense of humor.

And who is the total, undisputed winner in this contest?

Gold

As the dollar crumbles and loses its control of the price of gold, the yellow metal will soar to heights theretofore unimagined. Nothing will stop it. All economic forces will aid it in its ascent to investment orbit, where it will stay for many years to come, cruising the outer ionosphere of the financial continuum because, at that time, gold will be favored by the money powers of the world including - of all creatures of the human mind - the world's most powerful central banks.

For then, a rising gold price will boost their collective reserves, and therefore their currencies' values, not undermine them as has been the case before the euro's advent.

Gold will be free, and the dollar will be dead: so be careful where you put your money !


April 30, 2003

US Dollar Strength, Weakness and the Price of Gold: A Primer

When the US Dollar gets stronger, it takes fewer dollars to buy any commodity that is priced in $USD. When the US Dollar gets weaker it takes more dollars to purchase the same commodity.

The price of all US Dollar denominated commodities, like gold, will change to reflect the fact that it will take fewer or more dollars to buy that commodity. So it’s quite possible, in fact it’s almost always the case that a portion of the change in the price of gold is really just a reflection of a change in the value of the US Dollar. Sometimes that portion is insignificant. But often the opposite is true where the entire change in the gold price is simply a mathematical recalculation of an ever-changing US Dollar value.

When the dollar gets strong, gold appears to go down, and vice versa. That accounts for part of the fluctuations that we see in the value of gold.

The other part is an actual increase in the supply or demand for gold. If the price is higher when being measured not only in US Dollars, but also in Euros, Pounds Sterling, Japanese Yen, and every other major currency, then we know the gold demand is higher and it has actually increased in value.

Consequently, if gold is higher in US Dollars while at the same time cheaper in every other currency, then we can conclude that the US Dollar has weakened, and that gold has actually lost value in all other currencies. But the price, because it is being quoted in $USD will be higher and give the illusion of gold becoming more valuable. In such a case the devaluation of gold, due to increased supply on the market, is camouflaged by a weakened US Dollar.

Our feature on kitco.com breaks the change of the price of gold into 2 components. One part shows you how much of that change can be attributed to US Dollar strength, or lack of it. The other portion is indicative of how much the price changed as a result of normal trading. Interestingly whatever changes happen to the price of gold as a result of US Dollar strength/weakness also occurs to every other US Dollar denominated commodity by the exact same proportion.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

HARGA EMAS MELEPASI USD1200/OZ

Hari ini dalam sejarah lagi.Harga emas telah melepasi paras USD1200/oz buat kali pertama hari ini.Jika prestasi serta trend peningkatan harga emas berterusan seperti tahun 2009,seperti En.Shukor JutawanEmas.com dalam artikel terbarunya,(kenaikan harga emas 37% sejak Jan'09),saya juga berani meramalkan harga emas mampu mencecah USD1700/oz pada penghujung 2010.

Lagi sekali perhatikan kata-kata petikan dari Robert T.Kiyosaki,"orang yang bertuah membuat untung ketika membeli bukan ketika menjual".Maka,belilah emas.Contohnya jika kita mempunyai impian untuk menggandakan wang simpanan dalam masa 2 tahun,maka laburlah dalam emas.InsyaAllah dalam jangkamasa 2 tahun akan datang,nilai harga emas yang dibeli pada hari ini akan berganda.

Lagi sekali...mengapa saya berandaian begitu?
Sebabnya ialah.....bagi orang yang dah membeli emas,akan menjadi bertuah ketika harga emas melonjak...hasrat untuk menambah koleksi emas juga akan bertambah...secara tidak langsung,permintaan terhadap emas akan tinggi.Permintaan yang tinggi terhadap stok yang terhad,akan meningkatkan lagi harga emas.Disamping lemahnya nilai dollar U.S. ketika krisis kekalutan ekonomi,harga emas akan terus menyinar seiring kilauan emas itu sendiri.




Carta kitco spot price USD1208.30/oz



Carta kitco spot harga RM4091.54/oz




Carta kitco spot price 3day24hour menunjukkan harga emas melepasi USD1200/oz

Saturday, November 28, 2009

EMAS vs WANG KERTAS

Emas adalah salah satu unsur kimia. Simbol kimia emas adalah Au atau Aurum dan nombor atom 79. Karakter utamanya adalah logam lembut,mudah ditempa,mulur,logam peralihan,stabil iaitu tidak bertindakbalas dengan kebanyakan bahan kimia. Maksudnya emas tidak berinteraksi dengan bahan kimia atau senyawa yang lain.Dengan demikian, emas kekal dan berterusan selamanya - dan tetap berkilau sepanjang waktu!


Bentuk Emas Mentah

Emas digunakan oleh banyak industri, tetapi sejarah utamanya telah menggunakan emas untuk perhiasan dan matawang - kedua-duanya adalah dalam bentuk penyimpan nilai. Emas telah digunakan sebagai penyimpan nilai sekitar 5000 tahun lampau. Emas disukat dan dihargakan melalui Troy ouns dan Gram. Sebagai contoh emas (berkemampuan untuk menyimpan nilai): 2000 tahun yang lalu satu ouns emas dapat membeli pakaian yang berjenama dan berkualiti. Hari ini satu ouns emas juga masih boleh membeli pakaian yang berkualiti. Malah bakinya masih cukup untuk membeli beberapa kemeja, pakaian dalam,sepasang sepatu dan lain-lain.

Apabila dialoi dengan logam lain,perkataan karat digunakan untuk menunjukkan kuantiti emas yang hadir,emas 24 karat adalah emas tulin.

Sebagai pelaburan ketara,emas kadangkala dipegang sebagai sebahagian daripada portfolio kerana pada jangkamasa panjang emas telahpun memiliki sejarah yang lama dalam pengekalan nilainya.

Emas menjadi semakin menarik disaat-saat keyakinan rendah dan semasa hiperinflasi kerana emas mengekalkan nilainya.


Graf pergerakan harga emas sejak tahun 2000 hingga 2009


Emas telah disebut sebagai "barometer ketakutan." Ketika pakar ekonomi cemas tentang ekonomi - mereka berpaling kepada emas dan menawarkan harga kepada emas. Dua hal utama yang membuat orang gelisah adalah deflasi dan inflasi. Kebanyakannya berfikir bahawa deflasi adalah "penurunan harga" dan inflasi adalah "kenaikan harga." Sebenarnya, naik dan turun harga adalah gejala. Akar penyebab berkurang (mengempis) atau meningkat (membesar-besarkan) dari jumlah wang yang beredar. Emas memiliki kemampuan yang luar biasa untuk menyimpan nilai dalam kedua-dua gejala deflasi dan inflasi itu.


Rakyat Zimbabwee terpaksa 'menggendong' jutaan wang kertas bagi membeli barangan harian


Kaedah yang betul untuk berfikir tentang memiliki emas adalah sebagai simpanan atau pelaburan. Emas adalah penyimpan nilai yang hampir tercicir dari arus ekonomi. Tidak seperti bursa saham atau bon kerajaan - emas akan selalu mempertahankan nilainya. Hampir setiap negara mempunyai setidak-tidaknya satu "krisis matawang" yang teruk selama seratus tahun terakhir. Bagi mereka yang memiliki sebahagian dari kekayaan dalam bentuk simpanan dan pelaburan emas akan terselamat. Sayangnya ramai orang melihat tabungan emas mereka menjadi tidak berharga - kadang-kadang dalam hitungan hari.Simpanan emas akan dilihat bernilai untuk jangkamasa panjang.Nilai emas akan menjadi lebih utuh dan nilai yang kekal sepanjang zaman.


Nilai duit untuk membayar harga secawan kopi di Zimbabwee

Jadi, berfikir tentang emas sebagai pelaburan jangkamasa panjang. Jangan berfikir emas sebagai cara untuk "membuat wang mudah." Lebih baik membeli emas dalam jumlah yang kecil tetapi secara teratur, setiap bulan misalnya, selama jangkamasa tertentu.Peruntukan 10% dari kekayaan dikhususkan untuk emas adalah keputusan peribadi dan bergantung pada situasi tertentu. Dalam jangkamasa ketidakpastian,peratusan tadi akan meningkat nilainya jauh lebih tinggi.


Tanda harga barangan pasar di Zimbabwee dalam nilai jutaan


Jangan khuatir tentang menjual emas ketika tiba saatnya. Emas diakui dan dihargai di mana-mana di dunia. Lebih mudah untuk menjual emas daripada membeli emas! Tentu saja emas dapat digunakan dalam perdagangan barter atau seperti yang terjadi selama ribuan tahun.


50 juta dollar untuk sesikat pisang di Zimbabwee





Secara ringkasnya,emas adalah aset berharga yang utuh terhadap ketidakpastian ekonomi. Emas dapat melindungi terhadap gejala deflasi dan inflasi walaupun wang fiat menjadi tidak bernilai.


Melaburlah dalam emas

JADIKAN SWISSCASH IKTIBAR KEPADA PELABUR NAK CEPAT KAYA

SUATU ketika dahulu, negara digemparkan dengan skim pelaburan SwissCash yang menjanjikan keuntungan dividen pelaburan 300 peratus dalam tempoh 15 bulan. Skim ini yang lebih dikenali sebagai skim Ponzi (dikenali sebegini atas nama Charles Ponzi yang mula menggunakan teknik penipuan ini di Amerika Syarikat pada awal tahun 1920-an) telah mengakibatkan beribu-ribu pelabur tertipu dengan modus operandinya melalui pelaburan Internet.

Skim ini telah membawa kepada campur tangan pihak berkuasa iaitu Suruhanjaya Sekuriti (SC) kerana boleh mengakibatkan kerugian yang amat besar kepada pelabur-pelaburnya dalam tempoh jangka masa panjang.

Modus operandinya ialah membayar dividen dengan jumlah yang besar seperti dijanjikan kepada pelabur-pelabur awalnya untuk menarik pelabur-pelabur baru tetapi apabila telah menarik sebegitu banyak wang daripada pelabur-pelabur, keuntungan yang dijanjikan tidak dibayar.

Wang yang dilabur hangus sebegitu sahaja. Inilah taktik licik skim pelaburan Ponzi yang bukan sahaja dijalankan di negara kita bahkan di luar negara. Ambil sahaja contoh terbaru skim penipuan Ponzi yang dilakukan oleh Bernard Madoff yang mengakibatkan anggaran kerugian hampir AS$65 bilion.

Pada umumnya, seseorang pelabur pastinya tertarik dengan keuntungan dividen yang tidak mampu ditawarkan oleh mana-mana bank dan institusi kewangan di pasaran semasa. Sesiapa sahaja yang mendengar cerita dari rakan-rakan dan sanak saudara yang telah melabur dan memperolehi dividen keuntungannya pasti terpengaruh dengannya.

Maka, tidak menghairan apabila 80 peratus pelabur skim ini merupakan golongan profesional dan cerdik pandai lelaki. Golongan inilah merupakan sasaran skim pelaburan sebegini kerana mereka merupakan golongan banyak wang dan sering memikirkan cara untuk mendapatkan keuntungan yang terbaik.

Bahkan, skim ini menggunakan modus operandi melalui Internet agar senang mengabui mata pihak berkuasa. Teknik sebegini juga boleh mempengaruhi golongan profesional yang rata-rata mahir dalam penggunaan teknologi maklumat.

Setiap pelabur tidak kira latar belakang pendidikan mestilah mengetahui beberapa asas pelaburan. Pertama, mereka seharusnya mengetahui jenis pelaburan tersebut. Adakah pelaburan tersebut merupakan pelaburan yang samar-samar dan tidak diketahui di manakah wang yang dilaburkan akan digunakan oleh skim tersebut?

Kedua, di dalam perniagaan, tidak ada pelaburan yang mampu memberi jaminan seratus peratus keuntungan ke atas pelaburan yang dibuat. Setiap pelaburan pastinya adanya risiko keuntungan dan kerugian. Jika pelaburan itu memberi jaminan keuntungan tanpa adanya risiko kerugian, bermakna ia bukannya satu perniagaan dan pelaburan biasa. Perniagaan yang menjanjikan keuntungan sebegini ialah “perniagaan luar biasa” seperti mengedar dadah, pelacuran dan perjudian.

Ketiga, persoalan kenapakah pengendali skim pelaburan itu sendiri tidak melabur sedangkan diketahui bahawa keuntungannya adalah terjamin? Apa gunanya mereka mengutip wang daripada orang lain jika mereka sendiri boleh mendapat keuntungan yang amat besar? Alasan bahawa mereka memerlukan wang sebagai modal merupakan satu alasan yang biasa diungkapkan tetapi tidak patut diterima bulat-bulat.

Maka, apabila Suruhanjaya Sekuriti mengumumkan bahawa wang pelaburan SwissCash sebanyak RM30 juta akan dipulangkan semula kepada 3,000 pelabur bukan sahaja membawa berita gembira kepada pelabur-pelabur berkenaan tetapi juga patut dijadikan iktibar kepada sesiapa sahaja yang ingin membuat pelaburan.

Skim sebegini akan sentiasa mempelbagaikan modus operandi mereka, dan kita pastinya tidak pernah lupa dengan skim Pak Man Telo yang telah menipu begitu ramai pelabur di Malaysia pada awal tahun 1990.

Di negara kita, begitu banyak cara melabur yang boleh digunakan meskipun keuntungan tidak sebegitu tinggi berbanding dengan pelaburan skim SwissCash tetapi ia masih lagi kompetitif dan lebih selamat. Di tambah lagi, pada masa sekarang, adanya sistem kewangan Islam, pelabur-pelabur seharusnya mengambil peluang ini untuk membuat pelaburan melalui instrumen kewangan Islam.

Tidak kurang pentingnya ialah pelaburan emas yang merupakan satu lagi instrumen pelaburan yang telap inflasi. Oleh sebab itulah, pada masa sekarang, banyak negara mengesyorkan agar mata wang kertas ditukar kepada mata wang dinar emas yang mana emas sentiasa mempunyai nilai yang tinggi.

Apa yang penting di sini, seseorang bakal pelabur mestilah memahami selok belok sesuatu pelaburan dan juga elakkan daripada sifat ingin cepat mendapatkan keuntungan dalam tempoh jangka masa pendek.

Sifat ingin cepat kaya, tamak dan tidak sabar serta inginkan keuntungan yang besar serta-merta sebenarnya boleh membawa kepada malapetaka kerugian yang amat besar dalam tempoh jangka masa panjang.

sumber: utusan malaysia.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

GOLD TO RISE TO USD1,300/OZ BY Q4 2010

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 24 (Bernama) -- The investment case for gold has become increasingly compelling with the Central Bank of London buying and a structural change in interest for gold as an investment product among retail customers, according to the latest research from Standard Chartered in London.

"Although the upside will be capped by lower jewellery demand, the increased availability of scrap gold as prices surge to new highs and a periodic dollar strength in the first half of 2010, will see gold moving higher to average US$1,300/oz in Q4-2010 once the dollar resumes its weakening trend," said Helen Henton, global head of commodity research at Standard Chartered.

Gold has averaged US$955/oz so far this year.

In its Commodities Quarterly report, Standard Chartered also forecast that corn and palm oil are likely to benefit from firmer energy prices in the second half of next year.

It also said that after plummeting in Q4-2008, commodity prices have performed well this year.

Crude oil prices are also up 74 per cent, but the energy complex as a whole is down this year as natural gas prices have been weighed down by a massive oversupply.

Crude oil demand which bottomed in Q2 is now edging higher.

The levels of demand is still however below previous peaks. Standard Chartered does not expect the crude oil demand to return to the previous peak (in Q4-2008) before 2012.

The weak demand growth and potential among the leading producers to expand output is likely to keep crude prices capped, with the average price for Q4 of 2010 forecast at $88 per barrel.

Crude oil has averaged $60 a barrel so far this year.

Among agricultural commodities, which have underperformed other commodities this year, corn is expected to lead prices higher in 2010 as a result of poor weather conditions in the United States and China.

Corn and palm oil are also likely to benefit from firmer energy prices in the second half of next year.

In contrast, the winning agricultural commodities of 2009 - sugar and soy beans – are likely to underperform as improved crops flood the market, dampening prices. -- BERNAMA

Monday, November 23, 2009

5 RAHSIA EMAS

Sekiranya diberikan pilihan diantara emas atau helaian kertas kata-kata hikmat,ramai yang akan memilih emas.Ramai yang akan memilih emas disebabkan harga emas yang semakin melonjak kini dan mengenepikan helaian kertas kata-kata hikmat.Esoknya mereka akan menangis kerana emas sudah tiada lagi disebabkan mereka tidak mengetahui rahsia emas.Lima rahsia emas adalah :

1.Emas menjelma dalam kuantiti yang banyak kepada orang yang memperuntukkan sepersepuluh dari jumlah pendapatannya bagi membina empayar dirinya dan keluarganya.Simpan dan laburkan secara bijak sepersepuluh bahagian itu demi masa depan keluarga.

2.Emas akan memperhambakan dirinya dengan taat setia kepada orang yang bijaksana,yang menceburkan diri terhadap kerja yang menguntungkan.Emas adalah pekerja yang rajin,sentiasa mahu melipatgandakan usaha bila ada peluang.

3.Emas bergantung kepada orang yang mengawal secara berhati-hati ke arah pelaburan yang menguntungkan seiring dengan ilmu serta panduan yang bijak.

4.Emas akan menghilangkan diri dari orang yang melabur tanpa ilmu atau tanpa restu dan persetujuan oleh orang-orang yang mahir dengannya.

5.Emas akan lesap dari orang yang memaksanya untuk perolehan yang mustahil atau mendapat nasihat dari penipu atau menggunakannya ke arah pelaburan akibat tamak haloba.

Fikir-fikirkanlah....EMAS adalah wang.......hikmah lebih baik dari EMAS.

EMAS MEGAH MENUJU USD1170/oz

Baru nak belajar update blog nih.....minat punya pasal terhadap emas,aku tak sabar menunggu kaunter dibuka awal pagi ini.Penutup minggu lepas harga kitco USD1150.90/oz.
Semasa artikel ini ditulis,harga emas dengan megahnya sedang menuju ke puncak.Harga terkini dah mencecah USD1163.70/oz.

Selamat Mendaki Emas......

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Sejarah Dinar Emas dan Dirham Perak

Kemasyhoran dinar sebagai satu matawang rasmi dalam sektor ekonomi sudah lama tersemat dalam lembaran sejarah Tamadun Islam. Dewasa ini komoditi ini seringkali dicanangkan sebagai instrumen alternatif dalam aktiviti ekonomi dunia semasa. Fakta ini adalah berasaskan kepada nilai intrinsik atau tersendiri yang diyakini boleh digunapakai secara lebih meluas serta konsisten. Namun demikian, masih ramai belum mengetahui dari mana dan bagaimana ia boleh berkembang sehingga menjadi satu matawang utama dalam kronologi ketamadunan Islam.

Sekiranya dinar emas mampu dinobatkan sebagai matawang utama pada ketika itu adalah tidak mustahil seandainya penggunaan komoditi ini boleh diperkenalkan semula sebagai matawang alternatif pada alaf baru ini. Barangkali slogan “Nothing Beats Gold, Zero Inflation in 1400 years“ adalah amat berketepatan dan bersesuaian dalam menyatakan hakikat tersebut. Terfikirkah anda semenjak zaman Nabi Muhammad S.A.W lagi kita tidak pernah mendengar serta mengalami keadaan inflasi. Tetapi pada hari ini ungkapan tersebut seringkali “menjelma“ sambil disulami atau lebih sinonim dengan kelesuan ekonomi sejagat. Kenapa semua ini boleh berlaku…jawapannya ialah matawang konvensional yang tersedia ada tidak berlandaskan pada sandaran emas secara mutlak. Apa yang berlaku pada hari ini ialah dunia menggunakan wang kertas yang rezabnya hanyalah dalam bentuk nisbah peratusan emas yang diperuntukkan dan bukannya instrumen itu sendiri yang memiliki nilai emas secara keseluruhannya. Justeru marilah kita mengimbas kembali keunggulan serta kegemilangan dinar emas semenjak bermulanya era ketamadunan Islam.

Masyarakat Arab Jahiliyyah pada ketika itu menggunakan dinar emas Heraclius Byzantine yang berasal daripada negeri Syam manakala dirham perak Sasaniyah pula dari Iraq. Tatkala itu mereka tidak mempunyai matawang tersendiri untuk melaksanakan urusniaga perniagaan dalam mahupun luar negara. Penggunaan kedua-dua matawang ini adalah bagi memudahkan urusniaga terutamanya pada masa yang melibatkan perdagangan utama di Syam pada musim panas manakala di Yaman pada musim sejuk. Namun demikian, keadaan mulai berubah apabila Nabi Muhammad S.A.W dipilih sebagai Rasul, dinar dan dirham telah dinaiktarafkan sebagai matawang rasmi urusniaga sektor ekonomi kerana terdapat keseragaman bagi tujuan memudahkan urusniaga. Ketika ini jugalah reka bentuk berunsur Islam mula menyusup dalam penempaan dinar serta dirham. Pada tahun 18 H atau 20 H, Saidina Omar r.a telah menambah pada dirham Sasaniyah beberapa elemen dengan tulisan khat Kufi seperti Bismillah, Bismillah Rabbi dan Alhamdullillah serta sesetengahnya Muhammad Rasulullah yang ditempa pada keliling gambar Kisra. Beliau turut menetapkan piawaian bahawa 10 dirham bersamaan 7 dinar dan ini kekal digunapakai sehingga kini. Satu dinar mempunyai 91.6% atau 22 karat seberat 4.25 gram manakala dirham ialah syiling perak seberat 2.975 gram.

Dalam rekaan ini ukiran pada permukaan matawang adalah rekabentuk Islam yang khusus tanpa wujudnya elemen-elemen Byzantine dan Parsi muncul pada tahun 76 H hasil cetusan idea Khalifah Abd al-Malik bin Marwan pada zaman Bani Umaiyyah. Senario ini turut dimangkinkan oleh perselisihan faham yang berlaku di antara baginda dengan Raja Rom. Pada ketika itu khalifah Abd Al-Malik bin Marwan telah diktiraf oleh Ibn Jarir al-Tabari dan Ibn al-Athir sebagai perintis menempa dinar dan dirham dalam unsur-unsur Islam.

Penggunaan dinar tidak hanya berlegar di bumi Arab tetapi melangkaui kepada ketamadunan Andalusia. Kegiatan perdagangan berkembang pesat selama 700 tahun di Andalusia telah memangkin penggunaan dinar emas serta perak sebagai matawang utama. Pada tahun 716 M, umat Islam Andalusia telah mula menempa dinar emas dengan ukiran bahasa Arab serta ditulis “Muhammad Rasulluah” disamping mencatatkan nama Andalusia iaitu tempat tempahan dinar berserta tahun diperbuat. Di belakang dinar emas ini turut diukir dengan tulisan Latin yang bersesuaian dengan kehidupan masyarakat Islam Andalusia pada ketika itu. Bukti sejarah juga menunjukkan bahawa setelah tamatnya pemerintahan Andalusia, masyarakat semasa pemerintahan Kristian masih meneruskan penggunaan dinar emas selama lebih 400 tahun. Dalam era moden ini, pada tahun 1992 dinar emas pertama Eropah kembali ditempah di Granada, Sepanyol yang sekaligus merupakan sesuatu peristiwa yang sungguh menarik.

Menurut analisa yang dibuat sepanjang kecemerlangannya dinar emas turut mengalami ketidaktentuan terhadap cabaran serta krisis semasa. Pada suatu ketika stok emas tidak mencukupi memandangkan siri peperangan semakin meruncing. Justeru perak dicampurkan tembaga menjadi matawang rasmi dan digunakan di Mesir serta Syam di bawah pentadbiran Bani Ayyub. Penggunaan dinar serta dirham terus bertahan aplikasinya pada masa keagungan kerajaan Othmaniah Turki (1299M-1924M). Pada hari ini, nama dinar serta dirham masih digunakan sebagai matawang rasmi di beberapa buah negara di Timur Tengah seperti dinar di Tunisia, Kuwait, Libya, Bahrain, Algeria, Jordan manakala dirham Di Emiriah Arab Bersatu, Qatar dan Maghribi.

Di Malaysia berkat pengalaman kelesuan ekonomi global pada 1997 dinar emas yang diperbuat daripada emas 916.6 telah mula dikembalikan kegemilangan sebagai medium penyimpan nilai yang tinggi, stabil, sentiasa berpotensi untuk meningkat nilai serta komoditi yang paling selamat. Dalam konteks yang lebih luas dinar emas turut mampu dijadikan perantaraan urusniaga hartanah, gaji dan bonus pekerja, mahar dan hantaran perkahwinan, urusan haji dan umrah, zakat dan fitrah serta semua pembayaran perniagaan dalam dan luar negara bagi negara yang berminat. Ini memandangkan dinar emas mempunyai nilai intrinsik atau tersendiri yang diterimapakai oleh masyarakat dunia. Nilai emas adalah stabil dan meningkat dari semasa ke semasa berbanding matawang konvensional yang seringkali menjadi mangsa penyangak matawang antarabangsa bagi mengaut keuntungan secara mudah.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

NEW CURRENCY NEEDED,says UN - BLOOMBERG


1. For a long time now Malaysians have been questioning why we must use the United States' Dollar for international trade, why we cannot use a dinar or any other currency. But Malaysians are not supposed to know anything about money, about finance. So nobody listens.

2. Now it is the United Nations which is saying that its member countries should agree on the creation of a global reserve bank to issue a new currency and to monitor the national exchange rates of its members, according to Bloomberg reporting on the Geneva-based UN Conference on Trade and Development.

3. The report said that China, Brazil and Russia this year called for a replacement of the Dollar as the main reserve currency after the financial crisis sparked by the collapse of the mortgage market led to the worst global recession since World War II.

4. The United States as the whole world knows is existing on unlimited loans by the rest of the world. US Dollar bonds are bought by every country in the belief that they would represent their reserves. Such bonds seem to be available all the time, unlike bonds issued by other countries which are for specific amounts.

5. If the US Dollar is not used for trade payments and loans, then there would be no demand for it. Obviously this would cause the US Dollar to be devalued. When it is devalued all the countries holding Dollar bonds would lose their reserves very substantially. So the countries with huge Dollar reserves would resist any move that would reduce the value of their reserves.

6. The US itself would resist as devaluation of the US Dollar would make it a very poor country. It cannot then remain the imperial power that it is now.

7. If the US Dollar is not to be used for trade and reserves, what currency should replace it? The Euro and the Yen seems suitable but it is doubtful if either Europe or Japan would want their currencies to be used the way we use the Dollar now.

8. The suggestion that a new currency be issued by a new global reserve bank is very attractive. Some people would like to use gold dinars.

9. The actual name of the currency is not important but backing by gold is important. If the new currency is used only for trade settlements (just as the US Dollar is now used) the proposal would be quite feasible.

10. Whatever, the world needs to discuss this proposal seriously. As the report says, a new currency would help to protect the emerging market from "confidence game" of financial speculation. And Malaysia falls into the category of emerging markets.

11. Maybe Malaysia might embolden itself to champion this proposal. Maybe!

TUN DR.MAHATHIR MOHAMAD
09hb.Sept.2009

DINAR EMAS

1. Ramai juga yang bertanya berkenaan Dinar Emas termasuk juga BBC yang mengadakan wawancara dengan saya baru-baru ini.

2. Apa yang sudah jadi kenyataan yang tidak lagi dapat dinafi oleh negara-negara di dunia ialah sistem kewangan yang ada sekarang sudah gagal untuk diguna dalam ekonomi dan dagangan baik dalam negeri atau antarabangsa.

3. Keputusan Bretton-Woods selepas Perang Dunia Kedua ialah semua matawang negara di dunia ditentukan nilainya mengikut nilai tukaran dengan matawang Amerika Syarikat.

4. Tetapi di tentukan juga yang nilai Dolar Amerika ialah sebanyak 35 Dollar untuk satu ouns emas. Ini bermakna secara tidak langsung semua matawang dinilai mengikut sekian banyak emas.

5. Di masa itu semua matawang adalah kukuh. Tetapi Britain, pada tahun 1966 telah turunkan nilai Pound British. Malaysia telah rugi banyak kerana simpanan (reserve) kita adalah dalam matawang Pound. Pada satu masa Pound yang bernilai Ringgit Malaysia 8.30 telah turun kepada Ringgit Malaysia 3.60.

6. Kemudian Presiden Richard Nixon membuat keputusan bahawa Dollar Amerika tidak lagi terikat dengan emas. Amerika telah tolak apa yang dipanggil sebagai "Gold Standard". Amerika juga memutuskan bahawa pasaran akan tentukan nilai Dolar Amerika.

7. Tetapi negara-negara lain masih percaya akan kekuatan ekonomi Amerika dan meneruskan ikatan nilai matawang mereka dengan Dollar.

8. Satu lagi keputusan dunia antarabangsa ialah nilai dagangan antarabangsa ditentukan dengan nilai Dollar Amerika dan bayaran juga dibuat dengan Dollar Amerika. Ini menyebabkan permintaan bagi Dollar Amerika menjadi kuat dan sekali gus menjamin nilai Dollar Amerika tidak jatuh walaupun tidak lagi diukur dengan sekian banyak emas.

9. Pada satu masa dahulu bank besar dibenarkan mencetak dan mengeluarkan "Bank Notes" sebagai wang yang sah dipergunakan. Kemudian pemerintah mengambil alih pengeluaran matawang.

10. Bank mengeluarkan pinjaman daripada modal dan deposit oleh pelanggan. Kadang-kadang jumlah pinjaman melebihi wang yang ada dalam bank. Tetapi ini dihadkan. Walaupun demikian pinjaman yang dikeluarkan kerap kali jauh lebih banyak dari had yang ditentukan.

11. Apabila pendeposit mengeluarkan simpanan mereka beramai-ramai maka bank tidak mampu untuk membayar balik kepada pendeposit kerana semua wang telah diberi pinjam bahkan lebih daripada itu. Dalam keadaan ini bank mesti di selamatkan (bail-out) oleh Kerajaan.

12. Melihat bahawa bank boleh mengeluarkan pinjaman hampir tanpa had (unlimited) maka penyangak pun merancang untuk guna duit bank yang tidak terhad ini untuk meraih keuntungan atas angin. Maka berlakulah dagangan matawang, pinjaman kepada peminjam yang keupayaan membayar tidak terjamin, penjualan pinjaman yang dikeluarkan oleh bank kepada syarikat insurans dan syarikat gadaian (mortgage company) dan lain-lain. Jumlah semua transaksi ini amat besar, bernilai berbilion dolar. Apabila ramai peminjam tidak dapat bayar hutang atau servis hutang, maka mereka yang membeli pinjaman bank dapati mereka akan rugi berbilion dolar.

13. Dan banyak lagilah penyalahgunaan sistem bank Barat yang dilakukan. Demikian Amerika dengan kekayaannya yang besar sekalipun tidak dapat menampung berbilion dolar kerugian oleh bank, syarikat, insuran, syarikat mortgage, hedge funds, merchant dan investment bank dan lain-lain.

14. Sesungguhnya sistem bank dan matawang Barat sudah gagal. Dunia harus kaji untuk menggantinya dengan sistem lain termasuk perbankan Islam dan dagangan dengan matawang khusus seperti Dinar Emas.

15. Tidak seperti duit kertas emas tetap mempunyai nilai dimana-mana dalam dunia. Dinar Emas dicadang hanya untuk menyelesaikan bayaran dagangan antarabangsa.

16. Apakah ada cukup emas dalam dunia untuk dijadikan wang antrabangsa? Sudah tentu tidak.

17. Tetapi kita tidak perlu bayar dengan dinar emas sepenuhnya. Memadai jika kita bayar cuma lebihan antara import-eksport antara dua buah negara.

18. Jika sebuah negara mengeksport 100 juta Dinar kepada sebuah negara lain dan negara itu pula mengeksport kepada negara pertama barangan atau khidmat yang bernilai 110 juta Dinar, maka bayaran yang harus dibuat oleh Bank Negara negara yang pertama hanyalah 10 juta Dinar emas. Jika tidak ada Dinar Emas yang mencukupi maka bayaran boleh dibuat kemudian dengan eksport bernilai 10 juta Dinar.

19. Kita bukan sahaja boleh ada dagangan antara dua buah negara tetapi antara beberapa buah negara. Sebenarnya bank-bank mengguna cara ini untuk menyelesaikan bayaran cheque kepada beberapa bank yang telah terima dan mengeluarkan bayaran berasas kepada cheque lain-lain bank.

20. Sudah tentu akan ada banyak masalah pada permulaan. Tetapi pakar-pakar boleh cari jalan untuk selesaikan atau atasi kelemahan sistem Dinar Emas ini.

21. Bank Negara Malaysia pernah runding dengan sebuah negara lain dan penggunaan Dinar Emas memang boleh dilaksanakan. Tetapi entah kenapa Bank Negara Malaysia tidak dapat menjayakan sistem ini.

TUN DR.MAHATHIR MOHAMAD
04hb.Nov.2008
sumber: http://chedet.co.cc/